As I’m writing this, I see that Braden Looper has been signed by the Cardinals for 3 years, 13.5 milion, 3.5 of which will be paid in 2006. We’ve essentially replaced Ray King and Julian Tavarez with Ricardo Rincon and Braden Looper. Time will tell how this exchange works out.
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I’ve been discussing (actually, more like arguing) with Jake the past couple days on the value of Juan Pierre. If you read my article on speed, you can probably already guess where I stand on this one. Although I do think he’s a good player, I don’t think he will lead the Cubs to a World Series title, because, let’s be honest here, they’ll find a way to screw it up.
No two ways about it, Juan Pierre had a rough season in 2005. Is there anything that can explain it? Maybe, maybe not. He said that a calf injury that lingered throughout the season didn’t hamper his performance, but who knows if he’s a guy that refuses to make excuses or not. Can one bad year completely change your view on whether Pierre is a good player or not? Has he ever been a good player? Some would say that he is overvalued and has never produced enough to be a strong player on any ballclub, but his past production shows that he has been a legitimate leadoff man.
Let’s compare Pierre’s career numbers with some other leadoff hitters, and I’ve chosen four statistics that most apply to Pierre, and I think lead-off men in general: avg/obp/runs scored (last 5 years)/sb (last 5 years). I think a case could be made that runs scored will depend on who’s behind you in the lineup, but if you never get on base, you aren’t going to score any runs. I’ll also put their salaries next to their stats.
Juan Pierre .305/.355/494/260 $3,700,000
Rafael Furcal .284/.348/467/149 $5,600,000
David Eckstein .282/.351/430/93 $2,333,333
Ichiro .332/.377/561/190 $12,529,000
Johnny Damon .290/.353/567/125 $8,250,000
First off, I must say that I think David Eckstein is a HUGE BARGAIN, at least he was in 2005. Second, Juan Pierre has the second highest career average and OBP out of these five well known lead-off hitters, the most stolen bases by far, and an average number of runs scored. Is Pierre worth what Ichiro is making? Obviously not. Is he worth what Damon is making? I don’t think so, because Damon’s power numbers far outweigh Pierre’s. Does Pierre deserve to make as much as Rafael Furcal? Well, not with Furcal’s new contract, but I think he does deserve to make close to the money Furcal did in ‘05. All four of the categories I laid out are weighted in Pierre’s favor, and while his power numbers don’t compare to Furcal’s, you can’t argue the fact that he’s been a better average, on base, and speed guy over the course of his career.
If we judge last year’s performance of Juan Pierre as the only indication of his ability, I think we’re being closed-minded. If that were the case, Oliver Perez has no value to any team anymore, even though he’s only 24 and had one of the best 2004’s of any pitcher in either league. He went 7-5 in ‘05, but had an ERA approaching 6. This must mean he’s washed up now and should pursue another choice of career, right?
What I want to know is, where do you all stand on this issue? Assume you’re the manager of a team; would you enjoy having Juan Pierre at the top of your lineup?
Lastly, I just want to make it clear that I will find a way to hate Pierre with a passion now that he’s a member of the Cubs, but I do respect the way he plays baseball.
-Joe